The rise of AI agents as economic actors is no longer a distant future—it’s happening now, and it’s reshaping how we think about transactions, value, and trust. But here’s the thing: while the buzz around agentic payments is real, it’s just the tip of the iceberg. What’s truly transformative is the emergence of the agentic economy, a new operating layer where software agents don’t just handle payments but act as autonomous economic entities. This isn’t just about moving money; it’s about redefining how value is created, exchanged, and governed in a digital-first world.
The Payments Illusion: Why It’s Not the Whole Story
When people ask, “Are we behind on agentic payments?” they’re missing the forest for the trees. Payments are the first visible use case, sure, but they’re just the starting point. What’s far more interesting is the infrastructure being built to support these agents: holding value, requesting authority, settling transactions, and even being held accountable when things go wrong. This is the operating layer of the agentic economy, and it’s where the real action is.
Take USDC, for example. It’s already settling 98.6% of agent-initiated transactions, according to Keyrock’s study. But what’s fascinating is why USDC has become the go-to settlement asset. It’s not just about being a stablecoin; it’s about regulatory clarity, reserve transparency, and operational trust. This isn’t just a payment rail—it’s the backbone of a new economic system.
The Volume Paradox: Why Institutions Are Still on the Sidelines
Here’s where it gets intriguing: despite the infrastructure being in place, institutional volume in agentic payments is still minuscule. Why? Because institutions aren’t just worried about payments—they’re grappling with bigger questions: Who’s allowed to act? What limits should be set? Who’s accountable if something breaks? These aren’t technical problems; they’re governance, identity, and policy challenges.
Personally, I think this is where the real innovation lies. Protocols like Anthropic’s MCP, OpenAI’s ACP, and Visa’s TAP are all attempts to solve these problems, but none have yet converged into a standard that institutions trust. And until they do, agentic payments will remain an ecosystem experiment, not a mainstream reality.
The Operating Layer: Where the Rubber Meets the Road
Building the operating layer for the agentic economy isn’t just about technology—it’s about creating a regulatory, governance, and trust framework that institutions can rely on. Here’s what I find particularly fascinating: the elements of this layer—identity, delegation, policy, audit, recourse, and transaction controls—are all interdependent. You can’t solve one without addressing the others.
For instance, nanopayments (sub-cent transactions) are only possible when settlement costs are even lower. But to make that work, you need audit trails, policy controls, and dispute resolution mechanisms. It’s a complex puzzle, and the institutions that figure it out first will be the ones to scale.
The Bigger Question: Are We Behind on the Agentic Economy?
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: while we’re not behind on agentic payments, we’re definitely lagging on the broader agentic economy. The projections are staggering—Bain predicts 15-25% of US e-commerce will be mediated by agents by 2030, and BCG sees $200 billion in new technology services demand. But these numbers assume the operating layer is in place, and it’s not.
What many people don’t realize is that the agentic economy isn’t just about payments. It’s about treasury, capital markets, programmable value exchange, and machine-to-machine coordination. It’s a whole new paradigm, and we’re still in the early stages of figuring out how to govern it.
What Should We Prioritize?
From my perspective, there are three critical priorities for the next year:
1. Move beyond payments: The goal isn’t just to enable agentic payments but to make agent-led economic activity governable, auditable, and safe for institutions.
2. Document the agent-policy framework: Institutions that define what agents can do, within what limits, and with what monitoring, will be the ones to scale when volume arrives.
3. Plan across the full operating layer: Stablecoins are just one piece of the puzzle. Blockchains, wallets, identity, audit, and settlement finality all need to be part of the conversation.
The Takeaway: This Isn’t Just About Payments—It’s About the Future of Value
If you take a step back and think about it, the agentic economy is about more than just transactions. It’s about redefining how value is created, exchanged, and governed in a digital world. It’s about machines acting as economic agents, operating within regulatory boundaries, and coordinating at scales humans can’t.
Personally, I think the question “Are we behind on agentic payments?” is the wrong one. The real question is: “Are we ready for the agentic economy?” And the answer, for most of us, is probably no. But that’s okay—because the institutions that start building today will be the ones to define tomorrow.
