The NFL is on the cusp of witnessing a potential paradigm shift in running back contracts, with the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions poised to make history by offering lucrative deals to Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, respectively. These deals, if materialized, could surpass Saquon Barkley's record-setting contract, raising the question: Are the Falcons and Lions making a wise investment?
The running back position has long been associated with the adage 'Don't pay running backs!', a sentiment rooted in the historical tendency of these players to age poorly and the availability of cost-effective replacements in the draft. However, the recent success stories of Barkley, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Christian McCaffrey challenge this notion, albeit with caveats. These players, despite their impressive workloads, have managed to maintain their value and productivity over time.
My NFL Projection Model, which assigns values to players based on various metrics, age, and position, projects Robinson to surpass Barkley's contract, with a projected four-year, $87.6 million deal, averaging nearly $22 million per year. Gibbs, while projected to earn less, is still expected to secure a substantial contract. These projections, however, are not without risks.
The historical context is crucial. Running backs with heavy workloads early in their careers have often faced challenges in maintaining their performance. Barkley and Henry, despite their success, had significantly lower workloads compared to Robinson and Gibbs. The cautionary tales of Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley, who signed lucrative deals before their workloads caught up to them, serve as a reminder of the potential pitfalls.
The key to mitigating risk lies in the guaranteed money. Assuming a $20 million annual salary, approximately $40-50 million of the contract would be guaranteed, including the 2028 season. This means a substantial portion of the guaranteed money will impact the cap in 2028 and potentially 2029. The question remains: Can these players maintain their current form over such an extended period?
The answer is uncertain. While the potential for success exists, history suggests that running backs may not age gracefully. The risk appetite of the Falcons and Lions, therefore, becomes a critical factor in their decision-making process. The potential rewards must outweigh the risks, and the historical data provides a cautionary tale, reminding us that running back contracts are not without their complexities and uncertainties.
